CALL FOR EXPERTS

1. Background

Hungary's 2026 parliamentary elections represent a historically significant moment. For the first time since 2010, polling indicates a realistic prospect of an opposition electoral victory, with results likely to be exceptionally close. This increases the risk of disputes around the acceptance of election outcomes and the potential for post-election instability.

Democratic actors — including civil society organisations, independent media, legal experts, and advocacy groups — face the prospect of having to respond rapidly and in a coordinated manner to complex legal, political, and communications crises during and immediately following election day. The risk of external interference, including from Russia, further increases the pressure on these actors.

As Hungary is a Member State of both the European Union and NATO, electoral instability would have implications well beyond its borders. Prolonged uncertainty could contribute to social unrest, deepen polarisation, and undermine confidence in democratic institutions across the EU.

2. Objective of the Activity

The Hungarian Elections Simulation Exercise (HESE-2026) aims to increase preparedness and coordination among key democratic actors by simulating high-risk election-day and post-election crisis scenarios. The exercise will focus on the 30-day period following the 12 April 2026 parliamentary elections.

The specific objectives are to:

• Test the response capacity of democratic actors to legal, political, and communications challenges
• Strengthen coordination across civil society, independent media, and expert networks
• Improve strategic decision-making under pressure and in conditions of uncertainty
• Build emotional resilience and crisis management capacity
• Generate actionable insights and lessons that can be shared publicly and with the broader democratic community

3. Scope of Work

The selected organisation will be responsible for the design, planning, facilitation, and follow-up of the HESE-2026 simulation exercise. The assignment includes the following components:

3.1 Design and Preparation

• Development of simulation scenarios covering legal, political, and strategic communications dimensions of potential electoral crises
• Recruitment and briefing of approximately 15–20 role participants, including election integrity experts, constitutional lawyers, Russia experts, civil society representatives, and independent media professionals
• Recruitment of a control team (3 members) and moderators (5 members)
• Logistics planning and coordination for the simulation day (11 April 2026)
• Preparation of briefing materials, scenario injects, and role profiles

3.2 Facilitation of the Simulation Exercise

• Facilitation of the one-day simulation on 11 April 2026 in Budapest
• Management of scenario progression and control team coordination
• Ensuring the participation of approximately 28 total participants (15 role players, 5 moderators, 3 control team members, 5 observers/note-takers)
• Real-time documentation of participant responses and key decisions

3.3 Debriefing and Analysis

• Post-exercise debrief with participants covering political, legal, and strategic communications learnings
• Consolidation of key findings and lessons learned
• Delivery of 1 online briefing and 1 written briefing to participants following the exercise

3.4 Dissemination

• Production of 6 dissemination outputs: 1 public analysis in Hungarian, 1 public analysis in English, 2 articles in Hungarian, 2 articles in English
• Organisation of 1 roundtable briefing for approximately 20 diplomats
• Organisation of 3 closed-door briefings with Hungarian media representatives
• All dissemination activities to be handled with sensitivity to the political context and the confidential nature of certain exercise elements

4. Thematic Scope of Scenarios

The simulation scenarios will focus on the period from election day (12 April 2026) through the following 30 days, and will include, but not be limited to:

• Disputes over vote counting and results announcements
• Legal challenges and constitutional court proceedings
• Attempts by incumbents to delay or contest the transfer of power
• Coordinated disinformation campaigns and foreign interference, including from Russia
• Civil society and media coordination in the face of institutional resistance
• International diplomatic and EU-level responses

The scenarios should be grounded in plausible political, legal, and informational conditions specific to Hungary, drawing on precedents from other countries where relevant.